76 to 94621 points over the same period

The strong rebound of the markets these last three months relaunching the queries of investors on the strength of the announced resumption these days. Last week, the major US indices have registered increases. The Dow Jones even recovered its losses in early 2009 with a gain of 0.26, to 8.799,26 points. S & P 500 advanced by 4.76, to 946,21 points, over the same period. The Nasdaq is awarded 17,87 since January 1, to 1.858,80 points. In Europe, no major index is in the red.

The intervention of Governments and the monetary authorities appears to have borne fruit: the injection of public funds and liquidity, and part of the Atlantic, helped save the financial system and ensure the return of relative confidence in markets. When the market capitalization of several industrial companies was less than the sum of their assets is now gone.

The modest revival of activity in the interbank market and signs of stabilization of the real estate market in the United States are additional confirmations on the strengthening of the financial fabric. The reversal of trend benefits as raw, one of the first consumers, China, has launched an investment of nearly $ 600 billion plan to prevent impromptu shortness of breath.

This bullish wave may yet prove to be short-lived. Too fast, too strong in the eyes of one another. Solid, justified and sustainable for the others. The division exists between analysts. "We continue to think that the markets are moving towards a correction," argue the professionals of ING. "The markets should continue their progression over the next six to 18 months," their replies Tobias Levkovich of Citigroup. The American Bank economists expect on a restart of the growth in the second half.

Pressure on oil

Governments share these indecisiveness. Meeting in Italy Saturday, the Group of eight (G8) already plans to change the duration and the magnitude of stimulus. They present two major risks: that of considerably increasing the public debt and to cause high inflation in the very short term. "In a few weeks, the topic of inflation has supplanted that of the degradation of financial and quantitative policies, note the service of economic research of Natixis." The effect on the rate curves was immediate, the rise of the short rate, putting an end to their steepening. "But the dilemma becomes full when we judge the consequences of an early withdrawal of these same plans. Instead of inflation, the global economy replongerait in a more severe recession.

Two indicators will help to refine the judgments on the subject: the indices in the American production and housing starts, published tomorrow. The thrust of the prices of oil, traded at more than 70 dollars per barrel last week, will be also observed with attention. The violent protests that followed the presidential election in one of its main producers, the Iran, could keep the pressure on fuel.

Indecision in the short term is all the more important that the volatility persists on many values. According data from Dealogic, publicly-traded U.S. companies have issued a record number of new shares in the month of may, consequence of the abrupt return of liquidity in the markets. Finally, the week that opens today will see the quarterly unwinding of four different types of options and futures on stock. These operations could also contribute to vary the course of several values.