Some offer even three nights for the price of one

A sixth. One-sixth of the cranes in operation worldwide 300,000 whirl in the sky of Dubai (1). While this Emirate desert, smaller than a French Department, houses that 0.016 of humanity. Shopping centres, airport, warehouses, air-conditioned beaches, skyscraper pivoting (!), urban highways, marinas, artificial islands, theme parks, all planned course to be the largest, most expensive, the most ambitious of the world; Dubai is probably the site provides that the planet has never brought. Even then, twenty years ago, vivotait a small cosmopolitan port between India and Saudi. The second most important seven countries Federated in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) since 1971 has doubled in six years its GDP, its population and the number of tourists. These were 7.5 million last year, which is true a few workers in the black, or almost two times more than those visiting the entire Australia. As the bidding is an art of living, some cite even... 40 million tourists in the medium term. Dubai feeds as a result of infrastructure and Barack Obama projects.

The sky seemed the only limit. "The sky" There fell them on the head ", scoffs businessman French, met at the same place where a three times higher than the Eiffel Tower skyscraper was planned." Postponed to better days EUR 38 billion project, only two months after that group Nakheel unveiled it last October. This thumbing its nose at the global crisis has fizzled. The global scarcity of credit and the fall of the black gold course caught the Emirate. Today, in full "shopping festival", intended to attract 4 million tourists from 15 January to 15 February, hotels turn to 40 of their capacity. Some offer even three nights for the price of one. In eight months, the Dubai stock exchange tumbled 74. Finite prosperity from the recycling of Saudi oil revenues or the habit of the Russians, Lebanese or Iranian here quietly placed their capital safe.

The "psychological shock" took place shortly after the inauguration by Nakheel, on 20 November, the Atlantis, the most expensive hotel in the world. Just the gotha had finished to frolic in a toboggan-tunnel through an aquarium filled with sharks and admire a visible Fireworks, it seems, space (cost: $ 20 million) the Group announced the dismissal of 15 of its workers... First, here. For two months, thousands of these immigrant workers, who represent 85 of the population of the Emirate, a proportion without equal in the world, have lost their jobs, thus their residence permit, explains Nathalie Gillet, journalist with the daily emirati "the National". He said that each week 10,000 expatriate leave the Emirate, sometimes leaving to the airport parking a vehicle which they can no longer pay the Bills. The regulatory agency for the public works (Rera) has recently recognized that nearly a purchaser of real property on two accused of payment delays. After still increased by 43 in annual rate in the first quarter of last year, the price of stone fell 23 since September. Some real estate agents, to convince their customers that the price could not that mount, were committed, check backdated in support, to redeem 20 more expensive six months later apartments they were selling, would leak; the cheques were NSF.

According to a study of UBS, the workforce in the construction sector which provides more than 40 of GDP should decrease by 20 this year. "And an official acknowledges that"60 of new projects will be reformatted, delayed or cancelled"." What is already out of land will be completed, because it is the credibility of the Emirate, summarizes Christian Koch, analyst at the Gulf Research Center, but which is still in boxes will remain there. "In short, the visionary project of Sheikh Zayed and his current successor, Sheikh Mohammed, to be an icon city where is come from around the world for shopping, relax... and speculate is in point."

He is not sentenced so far. First because the local authorities, who rely on the powerful neighbor Abu Dhabi, do not remain idle.Then, the "business model" because Dubai remains valid. The real estate crisis will not be crumbling towers or destroy infrastructure. The Dubaïotes will not lose the day after their mentality of contractor, an exception in a rather annuitant Arabian Gulf. What is likely to attract investors attracted also by the absence of delinquency and the rule of law, rare commodity in the corner; "here, a contract is a contract, the remedies in the courts are credible and nepotism relatively reduced", says a businessman. The country also enjoys a great political and social cohesion; the Emir enjoys unquestioned legitimacy and, in the absence of political parties, "behaves in consensual tribal chief, balance between the ten major merchant families", said a diplomat. The State guarantees free care, housed poor families and provides enough public jobs, paid around 1,000 euros per month, so that unemployment is not a concern.

Most importantly, the "mark" Dubai remains unrivalled. This is the recreation yard of the middle classes of Russia, the Middle East and the Indian subcontinent, who discovered the Corporation consumption and leisure, far from sectarianism or insecurity but sometimes at home. It is one of the few places in a circle of 2,000 kilometres, where a woman can wear a short skirt and where you can drink a beer in public. All in a huge concentration of malls; at a quarter of an hour's drive from each other are 8 "malls" size with few equivalents in Europe. Patrick Chalhoub, leader of the eponymous group, number one luxury-perfumes-cosmetics sector in the region, stresses that the strength of Dubai is to "focus offer diverse and abundant in a small area, constituting an attractive Sun-recreation-shopping package", the latter being the favorite sport of a large part of humanity.

In addition, Dubai did not live to the construction and tourism. The port, which handles approximately 250,000 containers per year, and its free zone of Jebel Ali are the third platform of re-export of the world, behind Singapore and Hong Kong. "Dubai was able to accumulate a globally recognized quality of service" in the handling, storage and transhipment, explains Philippe Blasset, Regional Director of CMA - CGM, one of the global giants of the ocean freight. Wholesalers come throughout Africa and the Arab world to buy oven microwave Turks, screens flat Japanese or Ceylon tea. The containers are transferred in a tower of hand since the large cargo from Asia and continuing to Europe on smaller vessels that serve the Iran, the Arabian Gulf, Africa. Chinese containers were also loaded onto a cargo destined for Europe, to win eight days on the road.

Ultimately, the real danger for Dubai is not both a crisis ending well one day, but her difficulty in attracting more and more expatriates to become a world centre for financial services, tourism and trade. Westerners, making up about half of the immigrants, have more and more difficult to save increase in rent of 100 in three years. With respect to Indian and Chinese workers, paid 1 dollar an hour, or Filipino nanny, paid $ 2 per day, sometimes huddle to six in one chambered leased to a merchant of sleep, they win, of course, better their lives than in their country of origin, but not in high proportions. The fabulous Indian and Chinese growth will require also the French model mixologist to be question.

Published in Les Echos n 20358 February 06, 2009 page 11