But it should have almost melted this year

February 21, 2012 12:00 AM
But it should have almost melted this year

A beautiful cacophony, if not a Merry Meltdown. With the sharp slowdown of economic activity, the European Union is is well guarded, in recent weeks, of a common front. The Member States, on the contrary, flocked to take action in their corner, according to their own circumstances, and especially of their budgetary room for manoeuvre. Without consult. The informal meeting of Finance Ministers of the twenty - seven, Saturday, may be an opportunity to put a little consistency in ads successor in the summer. Failing to define a genuine common strategy in response to the crisis, both Governments positions diverge.

The supporters who can afford

It is for the time of the Spain of the Ireland, and Baltic countries, the EU Member States experiencing the largest economic deceleration due to the explosion of real estate bubbles, and, to a lesser extent, the Austria and the Sweden.

In Spain, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero announced support to the economy measures valued at 20 billion in the month of August. A device that he completed Wednesday, by a line of additional credit of $ 3 billion for the construction sector. Madrid reached last year a public surplus of 2.2 of GDP. But it should have almost melted this year. And experts expect a return of the Spain to the deficit next year.

Dublin to unveil, October 14, his own stimulus plan. But his margin of manoeuvre is already upgraded. Due to the strong fall of tax revenues, especially in real estate, the Government of Brian Cowen predicts a public deficit of 2.75 of GDP in 2008, after a surplus of 0.3 of GDP in 2007. An optimistic forecast for many economists.

The "grand coalition" to power in Vienna was, it announced last month that it renounced the goal of return to the balance of public finances in 2010. A commitment made by the Ministers of Finance of the twenty - seven in Berlin, in April 2007. Clearly, the Austria would spin its deficit, which reached 0.5 of the GDP last year, to support the activity. And in ten days, at the presentation of the 2009 budget, the Government, centre right, of Fredrik Reinfeldt in Sweden propose a decrease in employers social contributions, the rate of the tax from 28 to 26.3, and additional public spending in infrastructure including EUR 4 billion.

The supporters already in deficit

It's the Portugal, the Hungary and the United Kingdom. Gordon Brown multiplies since re-entry announcements of stimulus measures. But the British public deficit flirts for several years now with the threshold of 3 of GDP. What should, in principle, quickly reduce the latitude of action in London.

In Hungary, the minority Government of Ferenc Gyurcsany, he tried to vote, a few days ago, a set of tax cuts. In vain. Budapest will still show a deficit of nearly 4 of GDP this year.

Income in the nails of the stability pact in 2007, after heavy sacrifices, the Portugal, he made a departure from its policy of austerity, by lowering its rate of VAT of 21 to 20 on July 1.

Supporters convinced

the budgetary rigour

It is the Germany, Central Europe and, to a lesser extent, the Benelux countries. Despite a public surplus of 6.7 billion euros (0.5 of GDP) in the first half, Angela Merkel, German, refuses the tax cuts he claimed a part of his party officials. The Poland, which is now an entry to the eurozone in 2011, has planned to reduce by one third its deficit in 2009, with growth still close to 5. Same trend in Slovakia, which will adopt the single currency on January 1.

Supporters forced

the budgetary rigour

It's the France and Italy, two countries whose public deficit approaching already dangerously close to the fateful bar of 3 of GDP. François Fillon clearly excluded, yesterday, any plan of recovery in the hexagon. Transalpine counterpart Silvio Berlusconi since his return to power in the month of April, made him as evidence of a budgetary parsimony to which he had little accustomed. All the more significant caution that the Italy will display growth almost zero throughout the year.