The comparison however faces three objections

a legislative proposal for the voting rights of foreigners in local elections, followed by taking a stand for a decrease in the statutory retirement age: in the space of a few days, the first Secretary of the Socialist Party, Martine Aubry, attempted to give a new dimension, that of leader of a party of credible government. In one case by showing its ability to contribute innovative ideas - if it can still be described as innovative a Socialist promise of nearly thirty years old and never complete-, in the other wanting to make the proof of his sense of responsibility - although, here again, with a time of delay on the opinion.

These outputs are nothing to chance and to consider their form, solitary and personal, it is not even sure that they reflect a deep ideological evolution of the Socialist Party. They reflect less a change in position of the party as a quest for position in the party, to the four major potential candidates for the Socialist nomination for the 2012 presidential, Martine Aubry, François Hollande, Ségolène Royal and Dominique Strauss-Kahn. The first three have in common opinion, have a deficit of presidential credibility. The fourth, the question is, paradoxically, less than whether if it would be a good President as a good candidate.

Perceived, rightly, as a condition precedent to the designation, this status is the obsession of the moment, as three of the four keys to PS characters have a serious handicap to go back.

Curiously, his position as leader of the main opposition party brings yet to Martine Aubry any basement credibility might expect. According to a recent survey of the Viavoice Institute (1), barely more than one in four French judge that she would be "a good President of the Republic". And half only Socialist sympathizers the believe, which shows a troubling difficulty in convincing until his own troops. Martine Aubry pays, in part, the failure of Lionel Jospin in 2002 and the good score of Ségolène Royal in 2007, which weakened the natural legitimacy of the first Secretary to be the credible candidate for the Socialist Party. In his case, the lack of credibility is also due to a lack of "modernity", the image lacks the most in the eyes of the public.

In the reverse position, that of a former Chief of now "free" apparatus for his ideas and his words, saying damn not be "in the small roles", Member of Parliament of Corrèze, François Hollande, proclaims one of the main characters and develops a discourse of truth on taxation.

But less of a quarter of the French and only a third PS supporters think it would be "a good President", tied with Ségolène Royal. Its large credibility deficit doubles as a problem of identity. "There is no Mark Holland", analysis Francois Miquet-Marty, Deputy Director General of the Viavoice Institute. And if there is one, is that of the servant to the good words and the small sentences it has long been.

These low water emerges that Dominique Strauss-Kahn, seen by 54 of the French and 67 of Socialist supporters as a good head of potential State. His challenge he is transformed into instrument of accession a necessary but not sufficient jurisdictional argument. "Until the end of the 1995 presidential campaign, Edouard Balladur was more credible than Jacques Chirac", said Brice Teinturier, Deputy General Manager of TNS Sofres.

It is tempting to compare the situation of the PS today to that of 1994, when a candidate as far as virtual, Lionel Jospin, crushed landscape. The danger to the left is, again, to see his dream candidate leave place to a candidate by default for Nicolas Sarkozy in 2012. The comparison however faces three objections. The first is the new force of the primary process, which gives the candidate almost mechanical legitimacy that had not Lionel Jospin in 1995. The primary interest is not only to eliminate, it is also to bring together, that had not wished to Ségolène Royal end 2006.

The second limitation is that the ratio of forces between the left and the right is materially different from what it was between 1993 and 1995, the Socialists electoral decline period. The third objection is in the slow but safe establishment - recovery-Martine Aubry in the circle of the PS let. First Secretary, whose future rating almost, joined in the last political barometer "Figaro Magazine" - TNS Sofres-Logica (2), that of the Director of the international monetary fund. Even if it still has to demonstrate that it would be in capacity to properly manage the country - a real challenge in the absence of project-, it reaches at least to convince that she can lead the party, where it suffers less and less slight. In PS, "Presidential 2012" exhibit is tightening around two characters, Martine Aubry and Dominique Strauss-Kahn.